SVM Algorithm For Predicting Rice Yields

Abstract

Agriculture in Indonesia is highly dependent on reservoir irrigation water sources and rain. Because some agricultural land in Indonesia is rainfed. Plants in Indonesia rely on water from rain and irrigation. Weather conditions greatly affect the number of farmers' harvest. Farmers often experience crop failures due to changing weather. From data from the Central Statistics Agency, it is stated that the number of rice yields in 2019 decreased by 7.76% compared to 2018. In order to avoid rice imports and rice food shortages, a breakthrough is needed that can help the government in making policies. One of the breakthroughs is creating a rice yield prediction system. The research process consisted of collecting data via the web: https://www.pertanian.go.id/home/?show=page&act=view&id=61. The data shows the variables of province, year, land area, production. The total number of data is 170 rows, with a division of 130 lines for training, and 40 for testing. Furthermore, the data is processed and processed and normalized. The results of data processing are then trained and predicted with a linear SVM kernel. The results of SVM prediction with original data without normalization of MAPE 6635.53%, and RMSE 1094810.74. The results of SVM prediction with normalized data first, the MAPE value was 9427.714%, and RMSE 0.017.